Hey guys, again this will be a more blog oriented post with a link to an article that got selected as an Editor’s Pick on Seeking Alpha. Here’s the link about the article – A fair read to anyone who is interested in computer or graphics processors as well as tech companies like ARM, Intel, Nvidia, and of course AMD. (http://seekingalpha.com/article/1957781-amds-revolution-in-computing-the-apu)
I’ve been holding shares of AMD for almost two years and have seen a very rough roller coaster ride and have used the drops to lower my average price over the years. I’ve spent a great portion of this time researching AMD and trying to accumulate as much useful information as I can and have recently started contributing to Seeking Alpha. I see a lot of potential from SA and am debating on using this as my primary source of income while attending college on the side. I’ve never been so passionate about something and am honored to have the opportunity to do this.
Just wanted to post some thoughts…
One of the reasons why I started posting articles on this blog was to improve my writing capabilities while engaging in my passion for investing. I have written a couple of articles here on Ticker Tracker and recently I have just had an article approved on seeking alpha and wanted to share: “3 Reasons Why AMD Will Beat Earnings for Q4 2013”
Thank you guys for sticking by and I hope to continue providing articles here as well.
Based on the primarily bullish audience on Seeking Alpha towards AMD including myself, I believe most of us agree that AMD is going to be a successful turnaround making it a great investment. Having recovered from reaching lows of $1.81 last November, longer-term shareholders such as myself (Since July 2012) have seen high volatility within the last year and a half but established a clearer vision of AMD’s promising future.
I originally purchased shares of AMD as a swing trade from a technical perspective seeing that it had lost 40% of its value in July of 2012. It would have been a great trade if executed promptly but AMD made an early announcement call a week before earnings informing that revenue for their 2012 Q2 earnings was expected to drop 11% sequentially which caused shares to tumble from then on. AMD was heavily dependent on their CPU & GPU sales but their CPU products were demolished on all levels by Intel and their graphics division was failing to keep up with NVDIA. Having only one competitor in each category and brutally losing to both, it was clear that AMD was suffering from improper management and a lack of compelling products. I hoped that this was temporary as AMD versus Intel for CPUs, and AMD (previously ATI) versus NVDIA for GPUs was more or less a back-and-forth competition over the decades in terms of releasing products that were powerful, efficient and of good value. However last year was demonstrated that AMD was left far behind in their dust. With the second half of the year including government grants, next generation consoles rumors and Rory Read’s announcement of AMD’s major restructure plan, a glimmer of hope was visible.
In July of 2012, AMD was awarded a research grant of 12.6 million by the Department of Energy in recognition of their award winning Opteron processors and success of inventing the first Accelerated Processor Unit (APU). And around August, the first rumors of the next Generation consoles: the Xbox One (probably called the 720 back then) and Playstation 4 were noting that AMD was going to plant its product in both consoles. And having already been officially announced to power the graphics in Nintendo’s Wii U released in later 2012, AMD was in a position to pull in big future sales. (As of now: Truth) Lastly, in the 2012 Q3 conference call AMD’s CEO Rory Read, backed by his long experience and credibility announced a major three phase restructuring plan to turn AMD around which has so far been a success.
As of last quarter, Q3 2013, AMD had successfully completed the first phase of lowering operation costs and is now in-line with completing their second phase of improving and expanding their product line to further profits. AMD’s new Hawaii series GPU architecture has been incredibly successful in dominating NVDIA’s competing products. Before Christmas, Battlefield should be releasing a patch that is expected to further boost the new graphics card’s performance thanks Mantle. AMD’s Seamicro deal in powering Verizon’s cloud services as well as the high demand for the next generation console sales show greater promise to fulfilling their second phase in widening their product’s line of focus. Lastly, AMD recently introduced the incredible improvement on power and efficiency of their new line of 2014 APUs: Kaveri, Beema and Mullins and is expected to set AMD up to regain market share where it’s suffered most for desktops, laptops, and tablets.
I apologize for the history lesson but I think these last year for AMD has been crucial to their recovery and I believe it’s important to see the big picture to be able judge AMD’s possibility of success for their future. Unfortunately, we are limited with only one important quarter of earnings that can only show a portion of their progress specifically being their consoles sales. In spite of further PC sales decline being announced I expect AMD next month earnings revenues to be on the upper levels of their guidance and possibly beating that thanks to higher than anticipated console demand as well market share recovery in their GPU division, thanks to the Hawaii series.
Disclosure: I am long AMD. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
This post is going to be simple in terms of Ford’s ticker outlook but seeing as Ford has been trading relatively flat for several months now while sustaining optimal growth and respectable record high sales figures I am very bullish, especially in the long run. I don’t own any shares of Ford since I do not have any money to invest at the time but think in spite of its 60+% appreciation in the last 52 weeks I think the stock is still bound to continue to rise especially for the long term.
ANYWAY: I just wrote a long post on the Ford Fusion + Hybrid’s Wall on Facebook about how I chose the Ford Fusion as my informative speech topic in 2011 and thought I would share it below. Maybe if you like it give it a like on FB (here)? :D
Ford & Ford Fusion,
I just wanted to say thanks for something that happened a few years ago in college. It’s a long thank you but bear with me. In early 2011 I faced my fears and took a public speaking class and for my informative speech I was desperately struggling for a topic until I saw the 2012 Ford Fusion. “Absolutely stunning” I thought. And what it offered in terms of its interior, fuel economy and practicality was just as amazing so I insisted that I would inform my classmates of the car that was going to flood the streets in their future – so I did.
Growing up I was a fan of Japanese cars and praised them for their reliability, practicality, and fuel economy among other things and unfortunately frowned upon what the American market offered as competition. When my aunt & neighbor purchased a brand new 2008 Ford Fusion I quickly changed my mind after riding in it. It was amazed by how smooth, spacious, quiet, and comfortable it was making it a good answer to what people were looking for. At the time I also noticed that Japanese cars such as the Sentra, Corolla, Camry, and Altima among many others kept getting bigger in weight, size and engine displacement with each proceeding model and knew that they would lose market share because they were becoming what the American cars were recovering from. I was definitely more passionate it than my classmates (input received afterwards) but I knew it was a great idea to talk about and the new Ford Fusion model was definitely the reason behind my choice.
When I saw pictures of the 2012 Ford Fusion inside and out I knew it was going to be the best sedan in its class… and it is! Even the Top Gear presenters were impressed when they announced it in their news session. I told everyone about everything I knew told them that the Fusion was going to be a game changer. Although I don’t know if any of them bought one (yet) – I’m sure that at least a few of them who listened to my speech remembers what I said when they see the popular Fusion populating the streets.
Thanks and a late congratulations,
Trading up more than 400% YTD at $175 sparking a giant war between the bears and bulls, Tesla has been the talk of the investment community. Although both sides can agree that Tesla is an amazing company and has the potential to become as large as Audi, the real argument lies in whether or not TSLA deserves the incredible growth in market capitalization it has achieved this year. Tesla is growing incredibly fast and with only a few quarters of information and one quarter of profit to place their bets on, the earnings announcement on November 5th has gotten everyone on their toes.
Tesla’s model S has been nothing more than a great success, shocking the entire industry by reimagining the car and what an electric powered car is capable of. Never has an EV been so desirable, but this comes to no surprise as it is elegant, exotic, advanced, fast, practical, and economical, all while being the safest vehicle ever tested. Next year, a similarly priced SUV version, the Model X will be on the market allowing for further practicality and sleek doors. Following that will allow the middle-class a chance to stop drooling over Tesla’s hefty price tag and take action on a high-volume, low priced EV, expected to be called the Model C. This is all years to come and hopefully Tesla will be continue to innovate and shock us all as competitors are really stepping up into the attractive EV market.
What Position Should You Take?
Tesla’s ticker has been on fire and everyone seems to want in. The question here is what position should you take? There’s so many variables here depending on the positions you hold and the risks you’re willing to take, but let’s discuss a long-term, short-term, and speculative position.
If you believe that Tesla may be worth anywhere near the value of Audi in the coming years and have the patience to see it come, Tesla is a buy whether the stock soars or crumbles post-earnings. Should there be a dip, further accumulation would be recommended. Tesla has grown four times in value this year alone and should it come anywhere near the value of Audi in the future, Tesla still has a lot of growing to do.
If you’re looking for a short-term position in Tesla just note that with this kind of volatility at the current price point, and with earnings right around the corner you’re stepping into some risky ground and any position is nothing more than a big gamble. The war between the bulls and bears are intense and very well may be a political battle as there is no certainty in either as they both post vastly different statements with valid arguments. So if you’re looking for a gamble go ahead and risk it with that 50% chance of success or not.
If you’re not in the game yet and are thinking of trading this position, unless you’re looking for a long-term position it would be safe to just sit back and see what happens after they announce their earnings. This is an extremely volatile stock and with this kind of volatility comes risk and with more information comes less risk. At this point why not just sit back and listen to earnings and base your investment on the results.
Conclusion & Disclosure
Unfortunately I don’t hold any positions in Tesla because I do not have the capital or gut to mess around with a ticker this volatile, but if I could afford an investment in Tesla I would go with a long-term position holding for years to come. I believe that Tesla is an incredible auto manufacturer and it’s great to see an American company create something so amazing. That being said, I can’t wait to see Tesla’s future progress, and should I take a position in Tesla it will be after earnings, unless I feel like gambling money I can’t really afford to lose.
The community has been actively watching AMD’s huge dip of 23% in the last few days following a strong announced earnings last week – leaving the majority puzzled. AMD has fallen drastically closing at an astonishing low of $3.18 today for a third consecutive plunge. Although there are many speculations as to why the stock has taken such a huge hit, the most common conclusion is that AMD PC sector declined 15% from last year, including the desktop increase of 5%. Although I like to stay away from drawing these kinds of conclusions, a lot of speculators are blaming a stock manipulation by hedge funds and analysts. To them I say it is a possibility but you’ll never have enough information to prove them guilty. Although the current situation is bad, it’s really only painful to those who cash out now and don’t take advantage of the poor conditions.
With this dip considering the long term: AMD is at a huge discount and whether or not the stock will fall any more is hardly a concern for the long run. Sure there may be a guy who will be getting a good deal if they buy at a lower price but in the long term even those who bought shares prior to the earnings still got a deal worth keeping. The only thing the last few days have done to longs is delay their profits – just like the housing bubble delayed people’s retirements.
The most positive outlook is to look at the facts. AMD posted their first profit in years and generated free cash flow for the first time since 2010, where the stock was hovering around $9.00. They also posted an earnings and Q4 guidance that beat analysts’ expectations. Over the past few years, AMD has been suffering from strong headwinds from Intel’s lineup over the years and a declining PC market. Based on the rubbish CPUs AMD has produced over the years it’s fortunate to still see them around.
AMD is in the middle of a major restructure with the first stage now complete. The completion of this stage has allowed AMD to increase their profits while cutting costs – commonly unheard of but given AMDs circumstances, necessary. AMD’s next stage is to focus on their new product lineup and unfortunately this is going to be a waiting game, but looks promising. The new R9 290x and some of the benchmarks released shows a promising card for the price and we can only hope to see this kind of progress in the future. AMD’s APUs have made substantial progress and I’m excited to see what’s to come.
Although our vision tends to get a bit blurry when shares of a stock you own lose 25% of their value based on facts that are unclear to many, it’s hard to see it last for long. Who knows how long the dip will continue down, but with the current circumstances AMD can only be viewed as a hold / buy.